Scots Breakaway Seen at 45% Probability by Economists
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Scotland’s nationalists have a 45 percent chance of winning the independence referendum this week and there’s a risk of a capital flight from the country if that happens, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Asked to quantify the odds of a “yes” and “no” vote in the Sept. 18 ballot, economists said there is a 55 percent probability the anti-independence Better Together campaign will win, according to the median of 31 responses. If the nationalists succeed, the biggest risks cited were investors pulling money out of Scotland, finding a currency solution and how U.K. debt will be shared.