Economics
Worried About a U.S. Recession? You Shouldn't Be
- Rolling 12-month S&P 500 returns, credit spreads remain tame
- Domestic-focused companies outpacing global-oriented shares
Why the S&P 500 Is Worse Than It Looks
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It wouldn’t take much to look at the performance of markets these days and draw the conclusion that investors deem a U.S. recession as all but inevitable. A deeper dive finds a more benign scenario.
Yes, global equities fell within points of a bear market, relative yields on junk bonds have blown out to the highest in four years and the price of oil has collapsed along with most other commodities. While U.S. stocks haven’t been immune from the downdraft, history shows there’s only about a one-in-three chance that America’s economy will shrink within the following 12 months based on the signal they’re sending.