Benchmark
This Forecasting Model Just About Nailed the Weak U.S. GDP Number
It's from the Atlanta Fed, and you don't have to pay for it
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Photographer: Jin Lee/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
If you were surprised by the no-show performance posted by the U.S. economy in the first quarter, you aren't alone. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg saw gross domestic product expanding at a 1 percent pace in the first three months of the year, much more optimistic than the 0.2 percent rate published by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.
Not everyone was taken off guard. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow forecasting model basically nailed the reading. The model, as of April 24, tracked growth at a 0.1 percent rate, making it one of the most accurate projections for GDP when grouped with the Bloomberg survey.