Donald Trump and Brexit shocked most of the world in 2016.
But not readers of last year’s Bloomberg Pessimist’s Guide, which warned that the unthinkable could happen in both cases. Now the authors are turning their attention to 2017.
From social breakdown in the U.S. to a nuclear crisis in North Korea to the defeat of Angela Merkel in Germany, the potential for chaos is just as great.
These aren’t predictions. But they show what your social-media news feed could look like if things go wrong.
David Bohuněk, Comsense CapitalThe growing influence of pro-Russian political parties can be a big threat for global political stability in 2017. This threat includes Bulgaria, Moldova or Estonia.
Alasdair Cavalla, Center for Economics and Business ResearchProtectionism will be the biggest point of contention in a Trump government. Most of the Republican Party, and its business backers, will be strongly against raising trade barriers, while for Trump it is a rare point of consistency. Without it, he also has little economically to offer a core group of supporters in post-industrial towns and cities.
Alison Graham, Voltan Capital ManagementRussia and China have interpreted the Trump election as an opening to pursue their regional interests more aggressively… Trump’s tendency to personalize and escalate conflicts, while failing to see the vast benefits to the United States of maintaining a world order reflecting U.S. values, will create a sense of ongoing global crisis.
Alan McQuaid, Merrion CapitalEurope remains the biggest threat next year. If Marine Le Pen does what Hillary Clinton failed to do and becomes her country’s first female president, then all bets are off.
Birgir Haraldsson, NightbergTo be taken seriously. Cyber insurance would get a boost as a new dimension in cyber-war gets escalated via more active state-sponsored hacking activities
Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene UniversityWill there be a slowdown or retreat in thawing of U.S.-Cuban relations? Will more market-oriented policies continue in Argentina and spread to other countries, such as Brazil? Will the current regime in Venezuela survive?
Arthur Jurus, Mirabaud Asset ManagementWe think Donald Trump will focus on internal policies, firstly with a potential cut in U.S. tax rates, then with regularization for less than 2 million illegal immigrants. Withdrawing from NAFTA could be an issue end-2017
Bernard Baumohl, Economic Outlook GroupOne scenario that really concerns us greatly is the destabilization of Saudi Arabia and there are various factors at play (Yemen, Iran financing terrorist attacks on Saudi oil fields, Al Qaeda inciting protests) . These could mark a turning point for the House of Saud and create the circumstances that lead to triple-digit oil prices.
Joel L. Naroff, Naroff Economic AdvisorsLet’s say everything gets passed. All that fiscal stimulus in an economy that’s already at full employment causes massive labor shortages, wage pressures that build sharply, forcing the Fed to deal with rising inflation, crashing the housing market and sending banks and the financial system into another tailspin.