What Might Happen to Mexico If Nafta Gets Wiped Away

Since May 2017, when U.S. President Donald Trump gave notice that he wanted to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, there have been seven rounds of talks. The longer they go on, the more time Mexicans have to imagine what might happen if Trump ends Nafta altogether.

If Trump decides to pull out of Nafta, he would first have to give six months’ notice to the other signatories, Mexico and Canada. But it’s unclear whether he could do this on his own. Nafta was implemented through congressional legislation in 1993, so U.S. lawmakers could potentially vote to block its repeal. And exporters, importers and trade organizations might file suit. If Trump prevailed, trade between the North American neighbors would likely revert to World Trade Organization rules, which came about in 1995, around the same time as Nafta. Under these, tariffs on U.S. exports to Mexico would average 7 percent; imports from Mexico would average 3.5 percent.