Economics
Traders Turn to Poloz Speech for Clarity on July Rate Toss-Up
- Odds of an increase have retreated after recent soft data
- Bank of Canada governor will ‘try to be cagey:’ Macquarie
Stephen Poloz
Photographer: David Kawai/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
Stephen Poloz doesn’t like holding the market’s hand ahead of rate decisions, but traders buffeted by recent mixed signals will be looking for any help they can get come Wednesday when the Bank of Canada chief delivers a speech in Victoria, British Columbia.
A rate hike at the next meeting on July 11 was once viewed as a near-lock, with overnight index swaps pricing in a 79 percent chance of an increase after the Bank of Canada dropped a reference to being cautious on future rate moves in its May statement. Now it’s looking more like a coin flip.