Never in the History of the Euro Has Volatility Been This Low

  • FX trade shows signs of hibernation as risk factors ease
  • Ranges expected to stay tight given fatigue on trade talks
FX volatility looks set to rise as the Fed cuts rates again, according to Commerzbank FX strategist Thu Lan Nguyen.Source: Bloomberg
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It has never been this calm in the euro-dollar options market and it’s starting to look like a structural shift toward persistent low volatility.

There were record lows for one- and three-month volatility in the common currency Wednesday, following similar moves in longer tenors at previous sessions. While the expected calm of Christmas holidays may explain the move over the one-month horizon, the trend runs further out and may be becoming the new norm.