What the 2018 Campaign Looks Like in Your Hometown

A recent poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation found that health care is the top issue for midterm voters, so it’s no surprise that it’s been the most heavily-aired theme of the election. More than 1.2 million television ads have mentioned health care, with nearly 75 percent of those ads coming from Democrats. Their message has been straightforward—a vote for Democrats is a vote to save or expand protections under the Affordable Care Act. For many Republican candidates, their response has been a promise to protect pre-existing conditions—while simultaneously defending previous efforts to end Obamacare.

While Democrats have gone all-in on health care, more than 570,000 GOP ads have mentioned taxes—nearly double the amount aired by Democrats—making it the top issue for Republicans in 2018. But the Republican message hasn’t always had a celebratory tone. Despite passing a major tax cut earlier this year, Republican ads in October that mentioned taxes were seven times more likely to be negative than positive. Republicans instead have used the topic to tell voters that Democrats will raise taxes next year if they gain control of the House and Senate.

In Tennessee, where the president has made multiple campaign stops to support Republican Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn, a pro-Trump message has been the most common ad topic. Nationwide, pro-Trump ads rank fifth overall for Republicans, as their ads have prioritized taxes, immigration, health care and the economy over touting candidates’ coziness to the president. The anti-Trump message has been strongest in California and Washington, D.C.

In April, public school teachers in Oklahoma walked out for nine days to protest their salaries, which are among the lowest in the nation. Since then, education has been the most talked about topic in Oklahoma campaign ads. Nearly 5,000 ads mentioned education in the Oklahoma City market alone, where candidates vying for governor have touted their plan to reform the state’s school system.

Nearly one in five Republican ads have mentioned immigration this year, but it’s only a top issue in a few markets, including along the U.S.-Mexico border, where Republican candidates have pushed for more strict immigration laws and funding for Trump’s border wall.

The budget has been the top issue in Utah, where voters will consider an expansion of Medicaid to 150,000 low-income Utahns by funding it with a sales-tax increase. Some Republican lawmakers in the state have said passing the measure could lead to soaring deficits, while proponents of expansion have said the plan would pay for itself by reducing the cost of providing uncompensated care to the uninsured.

When Trump announced tariffs on Chinese-made steel and aluminum earlier this summer, China responded with tariffs of their own, including steep markups on U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans. The fight has made its way from Washington, D.C. to the campaign trail in Nebraska, where agriculture has been the top issue in 2018 for both parties.

Despite a booming economy, there’s only one market where the issue is the most mentioned topic: Southeast Louisiana, where an incumbent House Republican has made it a top issue in his campaign ads.

If all these ads seem like more than you’d see in a typical midterm campaign, it’s because they are. The 3.5 million campaign ads that have aired so far this year (which includes ads that don’t get coded by Kantar Media/CMAG as having a particular issue mentioned) is almost one million more than aired during the 2014 midterms, and the total will increase as the last ads air before Tuesday.

The places with the most ads aren’t always the largest markets. Orlando, Las Vegas and Tampa have seen more campaign ads than anywhere else in the country due to a perfect storm of competitive House, Senate and governor’s races all occurring simultaneously.

And the party split has been nearly even too: About 54 percent of ads have been funded by Democrats. Areas where both parties have campaigned heavily are signs of competitive races, with the final decision ultimately coming down to whose message resonated most.