These Are the Brexit Battlegrounds That Will Decide the U.K. Election
The U.K. is about to hold a once-in-a-lifetime election in one of the most charged political climates anyone can recall. Almost everything about this vote is unusual and unpredictable.
It pits two populists against each other with spending plans unheard of since the 1970s. It will drag weary voters out to cast their ballots in the dead of winter in what will be the first December election in almost a century. And the winner could finally settle the fate of Brexit, more than three years after a referendum to leave the European Union plunged the nation into an existential crisis.
Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson is gambling an election will finally give him the numbers in Parliament to push through his version of Brexit. His rival, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, could put the whole thing to a second referendum. And then there are those that want to stop Brexit altogether. With the stakes so high, the battle lines have been drawn.
Fighting For Seats
2015 Election
330
over the 326
seats needed
for a majority
2015
David Cameron serves as PM for a second term after Conservatives win a small majority in the election.
2016
Cameron calls a referendum on EU membership. After which, he stands down and is succeeded by Theresa May—beginning negotiations with the EU.
2017 Election
317
coalition formed
with the DUP’s
10 seats
2017
May calls an early election and Conservatives lose majority. They enter into an alliance with the DUP at the cost of £1 billion in funding for projects for Northern Ireland.
Current seats
298
2019
May resigns after multiple Brexit defeats and is succeeded by Boris Johnson.
Johnson expels 21 rebel Tory MPs trying to block a no-deal Brexit.
Johnson calls early election for December 12, gambling he’ll have greater success with a Tory majority.
2015 Election
330
over the 326
seats needed
for a majority
Current seats
298
2017 Election
317
coalition formed
with the DUP’s
10 seats
2017
May calls an early election and Conservatives lose majority. They enter into an alliance with the DUP at the cost of £1 billion in funding for projects for Northern Ireland.
2019
May resigns after multiple Brexit defeats and is succeeded by Boris Johnson.
2015
David Cameron serves as PM
for a second term after
Conservatives win a small majority in the election.
Johnson expels 21 rebel Tory MPs trying to block a no-deal Brexit.
2016
Cameron calls a referendum on EU membership. After which, he stands down and is succeeded by Theresa May—beginning negotiations with the EU.
Johnson calls early election for December 12, gambling he’ll have greater success with a Tory majority.
The countdown to Dec. 12 is underway. While the Conservatives and Labour slug it out, look out for the smaller parties. Jo Swinson’s anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats and Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party are targeting seats to prevent either side from winning outright. If they succeed, they will ask to re-open the case on Brexit and Scottish independence in exchange for their support.
Election Battlegrounds
Party targeting
2017 result
Conservative
Labour
SNP
LibDem
The SNP are targeting Labour, Conservative and LibDem seats in Scotland, three of which were won by less than 1% of the vote in 2017. These include Glasgow North East, which Labour won back from the SNP by only 242 votes.
SCOTLAND
Labour are targetting Conservative Loughborough in the East Midlands which was split down the middle voting 50.1% to Leave the EU. They’re also targeting Conservative seats in London that voted to Remain in the 2016 referendum
NORTHERN
IRELAND
Northern Ireland’s DUP sees Johnson’s deal as threatening the unity of the U.K., meaning he can no longer rely on their votes in Parliament to build a majority
Conservatives are targeting Labour seats in the midlands and North of England that voted to Leave the EU. Stoke-On-Trent North in the Midlands voted 72.1% to Leave in 2016
WALES
LibDems want to pick up Conservative and Labour seats in London which voted overall to Remain. London’s Kensington is narrowly held by Labour by 20 votes
Party targeting
Conservative
Labour
SNP
LibDem
| SNP Targets | Majority | Leave/Remain |
|---|---|---|
| Glasgow North East | 242 | Remain 59.3% |
| Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | 259 | Remain 56.7% |
| Rutherglen and Hamilton West | 265 | Remain 62.4% |
| Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill | 1,586 | Remain 61.2% |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | 2,044 | Leave 51.3% |
| Gordon | 2,607 | Remain 55.7% |
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | 2,774 | Remain 55.9% |
| East Lothian | 3,083 | Remain 64.6% |
| Ochil and South Perthshire | 3,359 | Remain 60.5% |
| East Renfrewshire | 4,712 | Remain 74.3% |
| Labour Targets | Majority | Leave/Remain |
|---|---|---|
| Hastings and Rye | 346 | Leave 55.9% |
| Hendon | 1,072 | Remain 58.4% |
| Putney | 1,554 | Remain 72.2% |
| Harrow East | 1,757 | Remain 52.5% |
| Milton Keynes North | 1,975 | Remain 50.3% |
| Watford | 2,092 | Leave 51.2% |
| Chingford and Woodford Green | 2,438 | Remain 50.1% |
| South Swindon | 2,464 | Leave 51.7% |
| Loughborough | 4,269 | Leave 50.1% |
| Conservative Targets | Majority | Leave/Remain |
|---|---|---|
| Dudley North | 22 | Leave 71.4% |
| Ipswich | 831 | Leave 56.5% |
| Stockton South | 888 | Leave 57.8% |
| Lincoln | 1,538 | Leave 57.4% |
| Stoke-on-Trent North | 2,359 | Leave 72.1% |
| Vale of Clwyd | 2,379 | Leave 56.6% |
| Great Grimsby | 2,565 | Leave 71.4% |
| Bolton North East | 3,797 | Leave 58.1% |
| Workington | 3,925 | Leave 61% |
| Birmingham, Northfield | 4,667 | Leave 61.8% |
| Bassetlaw | 4,852 | Leave 68.3% |
| LibDem Targets | Majority | Leave/Remain |
|---|---|---|
| Kensington | 20 | Remain 68.8% |
| Richmond Park | 45 | Remain 71.3% |
| Sheffield, Hallam | 2,125 | Remain 66% |
| Cheltenham | 2,569 | Remain 57.1% |
| Cities of London and Westminster | 3,148 | Remain 71.9% |
| North Devon | 4,332 | Leave 57% |
| Wimbledon | 5,622 | Remain 70.6% |
| St. Albans | 6,109 | Remain 62.2% |
| Yeovil | 14,723 | Leave 59.9% |
| Harrogate and Knaresborough | 18,168 | Remain 52.8% |
If Johnson’s campaign bet goes awry and he doesn’t gain overall control of Parliament, his ability to pass his deal in time is in jeopardy. If it backfires completely and he loses then Corbyn, who has promised a raft of socialist policies, could take office.
Party Policies
-
Conservative
Boris Johnson
-
Labour
Jeremy Corbyn
-
Liberal Democrat
Jo Swinson
-
SNP
Nicola Sturgeon
Brexit
-
Force Johnson’s Brexit deal through Parliament
-
Renegotiate Brexit deal with the EU within six months then hold a referendum
-
Reverse Brexit process and stay in the EU
-
Halt or reverse Brexit process, prioritize referendum on Scottish independence
Economy
-
Borrow more to invest in infrastructure under loosened fiscal rules
-
Create a National Transformation Fund to invest in infrastructure. Increase tax on highest earners. Nationalize key industries
-
Increase corporation tax to fund lifelong learning program
-
Raise tax to boost funding of schools and hospitals
Health
-
Invest another £33.9 billion in the NHS each year by 2023
-
Also increase spending and create a state-owned drug company to keep medicine prices down
-
Transform mental health services by assigning the same importance as physical health
-
Protect the NHS from privatization
Polling shows Johnson’s Conservatives have a large national lead against Corbyn’s Labour. But everyone should take what opinion surveys say with a pinch of salt. Pollsters have misjudged British voters before, most catastrophically with the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Moreover, polling doesn’t determine the make-up of Parliament, as lawmakers are elected by individual voting district. Therefore they struggle to account for the possibility of tactical voting, which is a notable part of this election.
U.K. Polling
Source: YouGov
For investors, who fear a Corbyn administration, there is a distinct possibility that Labour could pull a surprise. It came within sniffing distance of power in the 2017 election. If he doesn’t win outright, Corbyn would have to walk in to 10 Downing Street relying on the support of smaller voting blocs. Sturgeon’s SNP have set a price already: a 2020 referendum on Scottish independence.
If no party secures an overall majority and an alliance can’t be reached, Britain may be heading for another election in 2020.