Coronavirus Is More Dangerous for the Global Economy Than SARS
Seventeen years ago, China’s gross domestic product was 4% of the global total—it’s now 17%.
A man wearing a mask walks past a commercial area in Wuhan, China, on Jan. 26.
Photographer: Xiong Qi/Xinhua/Zuma PressUncertainty about the severity and duration of the coronavirus outbreak makes it impossible to form a definitive judgment about its economic impact. Still, with the markets anticipating the worst, it’s worth thinking through the risks for China, as well as the potential for global spillovers.
The lens for thinking about the economic impact in China is the experience of SARS in 2003. Short for severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS killed almost 800 people. That knocked two full percentage points off China’s economic growth, which dipped from 11.1% in the first quarter of 2003 to 9.1% the following quarter. With the outbreak contained, growth recovered to 10% in the third quarter.