Disease Experts Are Better Than the Covid-19 Contrarians
Yes, epidemiologists, like economists in 2008, got some things wrong. But who said they were infallible?
Who are you going to believe?
Photographer: Kevin Dietsch/BloombergOne of the most vexing questions in life is: Should you trust the experts? The fundamental conundrum is that sometimes the experts make big mistakes -- think of medieval doctors who killed their patients by bleeding them. But without expertise in a field -- economics, epidemiology, meteorology or whatever -- it’s very hard to tell when the official wisdom is wrong. In a crisis such as the coronavirus pandemic, where we have to make decisions quickly under incomplete information, this poses a troubling dilemma.
In general, we should restrain our natural impulse to second-guess experts and rely on common sense. Modern scientists, civil servants and industry insiders really do have deep reservoirs of knowledge and perspective. But there are ways that lay people can improve how they use expert advice. The Great Recession, when Americans had to decide how much to trust economists and central bankers, offers many lessons that can be applied to today's crisis.