Investors Are More Optimistic on Trade Deal Than It Might Seem
- Volatility hasn’t spiked to levels seen during big risk events
- Stocks, bonds and currencies mostly see accord getting done
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For all the carnage in U.S. stocks over the past few days, a look at the options markets show investors are still wagering that a trade deal will eventually get done.
Bets on future price swings remain subdued across most markets compared with how they’ve reacted in the past to major bouts of risk. Even as stock, bond and currency traders are pricing in the likelihood that President Donald Trump will carry out his threat to jack up tariffs on Chinese goods at midnight Friday, investors aren’t showing any conviction that the talks will get completely derailed and bring about long-term pain.