Pig Disease Means China Will Struggle to Meet U.S. Import Target
- Nomura says importing $50 billion of U.S. farm goods difficult
- Nomura economists argue that fewer hogs will hurt feed demand
Photographer: Sebastien St-Jean/AFP via Getty Images
President Donald Trump touted China’s promise to buy as much as $50 billion in agricultural goods over two years in a trade deal, a boost to Midwest soybean farmers suffering from the current slump in trade. But a deadly disease in China has killed off many of the pigs who would have eaten those American soybeans, possibly putting that target out of reach.
“Meeting this target will be quite challenging because around 70% of China’s agricultural imports from the U.S. before the trade war were soybeans” and almost all soybean imported into China are used for animal feed, Nomura economists led by Lu Ting wrote in a research note. Hog stocks are down about 40% in the last year, and even though farmers are restocking it will take a while to return to earlier levels.