Inflation Is Showing Signs of Life, Sort of
Looking Past December to Fed's Long-Term Rate Path
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen wants to rope more Americans into the workforce before raising interest rates. That's making some of her colleagues nervous. They worry the labor market could overheat, forcing policy makers to raise rates much more quickly and trip the economy into a new recession.
Inflation will ultimately decide who is right, and, by several measures, it's going up.
The Fed's preferred gauge of price pressures, PCE inflation, was 1.7 percent in the 12 months through August after stripping out volatile food and energy components. That's still below the Fed's 2 percent target, but the highest it's been in two years. The consumer price index was 2.3 percent. Both show a decided, if gentle, upward trend.
"The rise in core PCE inflation will serve to reinforce the argument of the centrists and hawks on the FOMC that the Fed is getting closer to both its employment and inflation objectives," Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, wrote in a note to clients, referring to the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.