Recession Risk Is Rising, Deutsche’s Chief U.S. Economist Warns
The Fed’s labor market indicator is flashing yellow.
Is the U.S. Due for Another Financial Crisis?
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Standard measures of the U.S. labor market look pretty good. The unemployment rate is low, and job growth has been steady.
But one indicator is flashing signs of fragility. It's an important one, too: The Federal Reserve's Labor Market Conditions Index. After falling just three times from 2012 to 2015, the index has fallen every month of 2016 except for one, July. And in July the annual change in the LMCI, from July 2015, turned negative.