The Road to Reversing Brexit: Three Ways the U.K. Could Take It All Back
A shock referendum, a nation on edge, a leader on the ropes. The U.K. stars in a real-life drama about leaving the European Union, while the daily intrigue in London and the brinkmanship in Brussels have audiences guessing if the country will fall off a cliff.
A year ago, Theresa May looked all-powerful while rival Jeremy Corbyn was seen as unelectable. An ill-advised snap election later, it's Conservatives who are on the back foot while Labour, revitalized by May's stalled Brexit negotiations, is on the rise.
The reversal has observers wondering if May can survive the turmoil, and if there could be more twists on the road to March 2019, the deadline for the U.K.'s exit from the EU. Here are three hypothetical scenarios for how things could take a turn for the unexpected. They all start with May's own exit from the scene.
E
Economy
P
Politics
D
Diplomacy
Theresa May quits or is pushed out by members of her own party
Theresa May quits or is pushed out by members of her own party
Labour wins in a snap election
A new pro- Europe party emerges
Conservatives
rally behind a
Remainer
A three-month leadership battle tears the Conservatives apart.
A pro-Brexit candidate emerges but the party remains divided.
Conservatives unite behind a hardline Brexit backer.
P
MICHAEL GOVE
P
An alarmed EU intensified informal contacts with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s team, seeking assurances that concessions made in negotiations so far will be respected.
RUTH DAVIDSON
JACOB REES-MOGG
As Conservatives fight each other for control of the party, Brexit talks are suspended.
BORIS JOHNSON
D
P
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
JEREMY CORBYN
E
Talks with the EU bog down and the March 2019 deadline arrives without any kind of deal to soften the blow.
The country holds its second snap election in less than a year. Labour wins election.
D
P
Businesses retrench amid fears of higher taxes and the other socialist policies that Labour has promised.
Tariffs on U.K.-EU trade revert to WTO levels, depressing trade and sparking inflation.
E
E
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
E
Frightened by the dire headlines, Conservatives unite behind a Remainer.
Labour wins in snap election
Labour wins in snap election
Pro-Europe Party Emerges
P
The new government lobbies the EU for a longer transition period to allow more time for talks, offering a bigger divorce settlement in exchange. Brussels agrees.
D
The U.K. economy decelerates and is close to tipping into a recession.
E
EU embraces the new Labour government but Brexit talks bog down over nitty gritty issues.
D
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
E
The unions that provide Labour with most of its funding push the party to reverse its Brexit policy.
The Conservative Party is split over whether it should push on with life outside the EU or apply to rejoin, even if that means the U.K. re-enters under worse terms.
P
P
AMBER RUDD
With the parliamentary arithmetic now clearly pro-Remain, Labour announces a second referendum
Anti-Brexit Conservatives join forces with Liberal Democrat and Labour lawmakers to push for a second referendum.
A younger generation of europhile Conservatives split off and form an alliance with the Liberal Democrats. They form a new party and campaign on a platform of returning the U.K. to Europe.
P
P
P
The U.K. holds elections and new party wins.
P
New government opens talks with Brussels to rejoin the EU under new terms, without putting the question to a referendum first.
D
Labour Wins in a Snap Election
Conservatives
Rally Behind a
Remainer
A New Pro- Europe Party Emerges
E
Economy
P
Politics
D
Diplomacy
Theresa May quits or is pushed out by members of her own party
Theresa May quits or is pushed out by members of her own party
Labour wins in a snap election
A new pro- Europe party emerges
Conservatives
rally behind a
Remainer
A three-month leadership battle tears the Conservatives apart.
A pro-Brexit candidate emerges but the party remains divided.
Conservatives unite behind a hardline Brexit backer.
P
MICHAEL GOVE
P
An alarmed EU intensified informal contacts with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s team, seeking assurances that concessions made in negotiations so far will be respected.
RUTH DAVIDSON
JACOB REES-MOGG
As Conservatives fight each other for control of the party, Brexit talks are suspended.
BORIS JOHNSON
P
D
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
JEREMY CORBYN
E
Talks with the EU bog down and the March 2019 deadline arrives without any kind of deal to soften the blow.
The country holds its second snap election in less than a year. Labour wins election.
D
P
Businesses retrench amid fears of higher taxes and the other socialist policies that Labour has promised.
Tariffs on U.K.-EU trade revert to WTO levels, depressing trade and sparking inflation.
E
E
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
E
Frightened by the dire headlines, Conservatives unite behind a Remainer.
Labour wins in snap election
Labour wins in snap election
Pro-Europe Party Emerges
P
The new government lobbies the EU for a longer transition period to allow more time for talks, offering a bigger divorce settlement in exchange. Brussels agrees.
D
The U.K. economy decelerates and is close to tipping into a recession.
E
EU embraces the new Labour government but Brexit talks bog down over nitty gritty issues.
D
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent.
Job losses mount.
E
The unions that provide Labour with most of its funding push the party to reverse its Brexit policy.
The Conservative Party is split over whether it should push on with life outside the EU or apply to rejoin, even if that means the U.K. re-enters under worse terms.
P
P
AMBER RUDD
A younger generation of europhile Conservatives split off and form an alliance with the Liberal Democrats. They form a new party and campaign on a platform of returning the U.K. to Europe.
With the parliamentary arithmetic now clearly pro-Remain, Labour announces a second referendum
Anti-Brexit Conservatives join forces with Liberal Democrat and Labour lawmakers to push for a second referendum.
P
P
P
The U.K. holds elections and new party wins.
P
New government opens talks with Brussels to rejoin the EU under new terms, without putting the question to a referendum first.
D
Labour Wins in a Snap Election
Conservatives
Rally Behind a
Remainer
A New Pro- Europe Party Emerges
E
Economy
P
Politics
D
Diplomacy
Theresa May quits or is pushed out by members of her own party...
Theresa May quits or is pushed out by members of her own party...
1.
Labour wins in a snap election
JEREMY CORBYN
A three-month leadership battle tears the Conservatives apart.
A pro-Brexit candidate emerges but the party remains divided.
An alarmed EU intensified informal contacts with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s team, seeking assurances that concessions made in negotiations so far will be respected.
P
D
The country holds its second snap election in less than a year. Labour wins election.
P
Businesses retrench amid fears of higher taxes and the other socialist policies that Labour has promised.
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
E
E
The U.K. economy decelerates and is close to tipping into a recession.
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
E
E
EU embraces the new Labour government but Brexit talks bog down over nitty gritty issues.
The unions that provide Labour with most of its funding push the party to reverse its Brexit policy.
P
D
With the parliamentary arithmetic now clearly pro-Remain, Labour announces a second referendum
P
2.
Conservatives
rally behind a
Remainer
MICHAEL GOVE
RUTH DAVIDSON
JACOB REES-MOGG
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
As Conservatives fight each other for control of the party, Brexit talks are suspended.
P
E
Frightened by the dire headlines, Conservatives unite behind a Remainer.
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
P
E
The new government lobbies the EU for a longer transition period to allow more time for talks, offering a bigger divorce settlement in exchange. Brussels agrees.
AMBER RUDD
D
Anti-Brexit Conservatives join forces with Liberal Democrat and Labour lawmakers to push for a second referendum.
The U.K. economy decelerates and is close to tipping into a recession.
E
P
3.
A new pro- Europe party emerges
BORIS JOHNSON
Talks with the EU bog down and the March 2019 deadline arrives without any kind of deal to soften the blow.
Conservatives unite behind a hardline Brexit backer.
P
D
Tariffs on U.K.-EU trade revert to WTO levels, depressing trade and sparking inflation.
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
E
E
Businesses retrench amid fears of higher taxes and the other socialist policies that Labour has promised.
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
E
E
A younger generation of europhile Conservatives split off and form an alliance with the Liberal Democrats. They form a new party and campaign on a platform of returning the U.K. to Europe.
The Conservative Party is split over whether it should push on with life outside the EU or apply to rejoin, even if that means the U.K. re-enters under worse terms.
P
P
New government opens talks with Brussels to rejoin the EU under new terms, without putting the question to a referendum first.
D
The U.K. holds elections and new party wins.
P
E
Economy
P
Politics
D
Diplomacy
Theresa May quits or is pushed out by members of her own party...
Theresa May quits or is pushed out by members of her own party...
1.
Labour wins in a snap election
JEREMY CORBYN
A three-month leadership battle tears the Conservatives apart.
A pro-Brexit candidate emerges but the party remains divided.
An alarmed EU intensified informal contacts with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s team, seeking assurances that concessions made in negotiations so far will be respected.
P
D
The country holds its second snap election in less than a year. Labour wins election.
P
Businesses retrench amid fears of higher taxes and the other socialist policies that Labour has promised.
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
E
E
The U.K. economy decelerates and is close to tipping into a recession.
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
E
E
The unions that provide Labour with most of its funding push the party to reverse its Brexit policy.
EU embraces the new Labour government but Brexit talks bog down over nitty gritty issues.
P
D
With the parliamentary arithmetic now clearly pro-Remain, Labour announces a second referendum
P
2.
Conservatives rally behind a Remainer
MICHAEL
GOVE
RUTH
DAVIDSON
JACOB REES-MOGG
As Conservatives fight each other for control of the party, Brexit talks are suspended.
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
P
E
Frightened by the dire headlines, Conservatives unite behind a Remainer.
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
P
E
The new government lobbies the EU for a longer transition period to allow more time for talks, offering a bigger divorce settlement in exchange. Brussels agrees.
AMBER RUDD
D
Anti-Brexit Conservatives join forces with Liberal Democrat and Labour lawmakers to push for a second referendum.
The U.K. economy decelerates and is close to tipping into a recession.
P
E
3.
A new pro- Europe party emerges
BORIS JOHNSON
Talks with the EU bog down and the March 2019 deadline arrives without any kind of deal to soften the blow.
Conservatives unite behind a hardline Brexit backer.
P
D
Tariffs on U.K.-EU trade revert to WTO levels, depressing trade and sparking inflation.
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
E
E
Businesses retrench amid fears of higher taxes and the other socialist policies that Labour has promised.
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
E
E
A younger generation of europhile Conservatives split off and form an alliance with the Liberal Democrats. They form a new party and campaign on a platform of returning the U.K. to Europe.
The Conservative Party is split over whether it should push on with life outside the EU or apply to rejoin, even if that means the U.K. re-enters under worse terms.
P
P
New government opens talks with Brussels to rejoin the EU under new terms, without putting the question to a referendum first.
D
The U.K. holds elections and new party wins.
P
Economy
E
P
Politics
D
Diplomacy
Theresa May quits or is pushed out by members of her own party...
Theresa May quits or is pushed out by members of her own party...
1.
Labour wins in a snap election
A three-month leadership battle tears the Conservatives apart. A pro-Brexit candidate emerges but the party remains divided.
P
An alarmed EU intensified informal contacts with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s team, seeking assurances that concessions made in negotiations so far will be respected.
D
JEREMY CORBYN
The country holds its second snap election in less than a year. Labour wins election.
P
Businesses retrench amid fears of higher taxes and the other socialist policies that Labour has promised.
E
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
E
The U.K. economy decelerates and is close to tipping into a recession.
E
EU embraces the new Labour government but Brexit talks bog down over nitty gritty issues.
D
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
E
The unions that provide Labour with most of its funding push the party to reverse its Brexit policy.
P
With the parliamentary arithmetic now clearly pro-Remain, Labour announces a second referendum
P
2.
Conservatives rally behind a Remainer
MICHAEL GOVE
RUTH DAVIDSON
JACOB REES-MOGG
As Conservatives fight each other for control of the party, Brexit talks are suspended.
P
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
E
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
E
Frightened by the dire headlines, Conservatives unite behind a Remainer.
P
The new government lobbies the EU for a longer transition period to allow more time for talks, offering a bigger divorce settlement in exchange. Brussels agrees.
D
The U.K. economy decelerates and is close to tipping into a recession.
E
AMBER RUDD
Anti-Brexit Conservatives join forces with Liberal Democrat and Labour lawmakers to push for a second referendum.
P
3.
A new pro- Europe party emerges
Conservatives unite behind a hardline Brexit backer.
P
BORIS JOHNSON
Talks with the EU bog down and the March 2019 deadline arrives without any kind of deal to soften the blow.
D
Tariffs on U.K.-EU trade revert to WTO levels, depressing trade and sparking inflation.
E
The pound tanks, forcing the Bank of England to raise rates.
E
The U.K. economy decelerates and is close to tipping into a recession.
E
Faced with uncertainty, businesses relocate operations to the continent. Job losses mount.
E
The Conservative Party is split over whether it should push on with life outside the EU or apply to rejoin, even if that means the U.K. re-enters under worse terms.
P
A younger generation of europhile Conservatives split off and form an alliance with the Liberal Democrats. They form a new party and campaign on a platform of returning the U.K. to Europe.
P
The U.K. holds elections and new party wins.
P
New government opens talks with Brussels to rejoin the EU under new terms, without putting the question to a referendum first.
D