Will Impeachment Affect the Elections?
Whatever the outcome of the House’s inquiry, the electoral effects will probably be small – and possibly nonexistent.
And so it begins.
Photographer: Alex Wong/Getty
With House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announcing a formal impeachment inquiry on Tuesday, it’s worth considering the electoral politics involved. It’s early to speculate on such things, of course. There’s been no polling on the whistle-blower complaint that prompted this announcement. Nor do we know whether the House will wind up voting for impeachment or what the Senate will do. But we can think about how public opinion and elections normally work, and how the uncertainties of impeachment may factor in.
So far, President Donald Trump is unpopular – and, polls say, so is impeachment. I expect the latter to change. The more that highly visible Democrats are united in favor of impeachment, the more that Democratic voters and independents who dislike Trump will likely shift toward their position. I wouldn’t be surprised if that shift happens rapidly, at least if the news media gives saturation coverage to the story and voters start to learn more about it.