What G-7 Leaders Will Argue About in Sicily
What G-7 Leaders Will Argue About in Sicily
The deadly terror attack in the U.K. has catapulted security to the top of the agenda for the world’s most powerful leaders meeting in Sicily. Italy, the Group of Seven host, said the summit aimed to “deliver the strongest possible message of extraordinary and common commitment against terrorism.” Still, the nations gathered do not see eye to eye on trade, immigration and climate change.
Here is where these geopolitical players stand on flash points that could erupt in the shadow of the (active) Etna volcano.
Trade Policies
Protectionist
Trump
Macron
Trudeau
May
Gentiloni
Abe
Merkel
Open Markets
Open markets
Protectionist
Trump
Macron
Trudeau
May
Gentiloni
Abe
Merkel
U.S. President Donald Trump has shown a disdain for the kind of multilateral trade deals that have been championed by several G-7 members in the past, including the U.S. Blaming such deals for the growing trade deficits in the U.S., the Trump administration has sought to push back against the forces of globalization in favor of a nationalist trade policy out of sync with other G-7 nations.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron just won an election promising to keep France open to the world in terms of trade, though he insists he wants Europe to have more powerful tools to combat dumping. France is concerned that the Trump administration wants to reduce the role of multilateralism and the World Trade Organization.
Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: Nothing matters more to Canada right now than trade as it faces renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Canada has long lobbied for expanded trade and wrapped up its EU trade pact last year. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has begun to hold it and other recent pacts up as a model for Trump, saying measures such as labor provisions in so-called progressive trade deals could be a tonic for the Americans, too.
U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May: The U.K. is leaving the European Union and wants to lay the groundwork for as many free trade agreements as it can, even though it can’t begin formal negotiations with other nations until Brexit is complete in 2019. May’s enthusiasm for free trade is not shared by the U.S., a difference of opinion she can overlook if it means commerce on favorable terms with the No. 1 economy.
Italy’s Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni wants the G-7 to reject protectionism. Its underwhelming economy is propped up by exports of its fashion, machinery, cars, food and pharmaceuticals. Exports accounted for over a quarter of its economic output in 2016, and as such, the country is one of the biggest proponents of free trade.
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzō Abe: Japan is disappointed by the Trump administration’s rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership regional trade deal. The export-dependent economy will continue to fly the flag for free trade, at least in theory. But its agricultural lobby is making it hard to seal a trade agreement with the European Union, and Japan is nervous about potential bilateral negotiations with the U.S., with whom it has a big trade surplus.
Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel is vowing to fight for free trade, backed by business groups and the mainstream political establishment. Europe’s biggest economy has drawn criticism in Europe and from the U.S. for its surplus and has responded with a shift to consumer-led growth in recent quarters. Exports still account for almost half of GDP, and Merkel has conceded German companies are aided by a euro that’s “too weak.”
Climate Change
Is it real?
Trump
May
Abe
Gentiloni
Trudeau
Macron
Merkel
Save the planet
Save the planet
Is it real?
May
Abe
Merkel
Trudeau
Trump
Gentiloni
Macron
Trump has been weighing whether to abandon the Paris climate accord for months, with an internal struggle raging between two camps of his top advisers. While Trump has said repeatedly since last month that he is just a couple weeks away from making a decision, his spokesman said recently that the president will wait until after the G-7. Trump has previously called climate change a "hoax", and his administration has ditched many of his predecessor’s clean-energy policies, making him an outlier at the G-7.
May: The U.K. appeared far more committed to environmental policy under David Cameron and previous governments when climate change was deserving of its own department. With the arrival of Theresa May, it was folded under the umbrella of business and industrial strategy. That has raised alarm among environmental activists concerned that climate has been downgraded as a priority.
Abe is likely to speak in favor of the Paris climate accord but maintain a diplomatic tone to avoid alienating Trump. Japan itself has fallen behind on emissions targets since the Fukushima disaster forced it to close the majority of its nuclear plants. Local objections have made it hard to restart most of the reactors.
Gentiloni: Italy has put climate change high on the G-7 agenda. It wants to implement the goals laid out in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and has said it wants to reaffirm the importance of the 2015 Paris agreement, which asks nations to curb global warming. However its own track record on hitting carbon emission targets doesn't quite match up to its rhetoric.
Macron’s new government is a strong defender of the Paris accord and is pressing Trump’s administration to keep commitments made by Barack Obama. The French are very concerned about the possibility of Trump pulling out of the agreement, and they hope there is room to maneuver with the Americans.
Merkel was an environment minister in the 1990s, an example of just how far back her commitment to the issue goes. She’s trying to persuade Trump to uphold the Paris agreement and has indicated she is willing to expend political capital to achieve that. She can also point to Germany’s record of promoting wind and solar power as part of her government’s plan to scrap nuclear power.
Trudeau: Canada continues to champion the Paris accord and this month detailed its plan for a minimum carbon price beginning next year—despite warnings that U.S. regulations will loosen under Trump and create a competitive imbalance that could drive business investment away.
Immigration
No foreigners please
Abe
Trump
May
Gentiloni
Macron
Trudeau
Merkel
Open borders
Open borders
No foreigners please
Abe
Trump
May
Gentiloni
Macron
Trudeau
Merkel
Abe: Japan is one of the most closed countries in the world but is slowly opening up to more immigration. It accepted 27 refugees in 2015, the last year for which figures are available. Amid an aging population, it is seeking to bring in more highly skilled professionals, as well as Southeast Asians to help with care for the elderly.
Trump’s executive order instituting a temporary travel ban on refugees and immigrants from six majority-Muslim nations remains tangled in the courts. The ban, along with Trump’s proposal to build a border wall to curb illegal immigration, has attracted criticism from several of the G-7 leaders. Trump has remained defiant, saying the immigration ban and border wall comply with his “America First” philosophy.
May: It was the desire to cut immigration that drove the Brexit vote, and Theresa May is sticking to a commitment to reduce net migration to less than 100,000. Desire to control borders aligns the country more with the U.S.—though the rhetoric and tone are quite different from those of the three other European nations that defend the EU principle of freedom of movement.
Gentiloni: Italy chose Sicily as a setting for the G-7 to focus attention on the problem of refugees. More than 53,000 migrants have entered Europe by sea since the start of the year, with 85 percent arriving in Italy, often via Sicily and nearby Lampedusa, the country’s southernmost island. Many Italians benefited from migration in the first half of the century, but decades later a heated political debate pits those who want to be more welcoming against those who want tight controls.
Macron: France remains in Europe’s Schengen border-free zone and will continue to accept refugees. Again, it wants greater coordination with its EU partners on managing flows and more controls at the EU’s external borders given the stream of terrorist attacks on its soil.
Trudeau: Canada has tried to have its cake and eat it, too, on immigration—advocating for welcoming refugees while also cutting its intake in 2017. The country nonetheless champions immigration and diversity and will press against any hardening of borders and made headlines by announcing it would take refugees that its American neighbor turned away.
Merkel has bounced back politically from the arrival of more than 1 million refugees in Germany since 2015, spurred by an open-border policy that Trump called a “catastrophic mistake.” Merkel argues that measures to secure the EU’s outer border, including a refugee accord with Turkey, are needed to preserve free commerce and travel within the bloc. She has promised to help Italy deal with its influx of migrants.
Russian Relations
Warm
Gentiloni
Abe
Trump
Macron
Trudeau
Merkel
May
Frosty
Frosty
Warm
Abe
Trudeau
May
Gentiloni
Trump
Macron
Merkel
Gentiloni: Italy favors dialogue over sanctions in its relations with Russia, an important trading partner. The country’s foreign minister has said that sanctions have been paid for by Europe and the benefits reaped by the U.S. Italy has also been open to the possibility of bringing Russia back into the G-8.
Abe: Japan has a dilemma over Russia. The government spoke out strongly against the annexation of Ukraine, amid concerns about China’s increasingly assertive actions around disputed East China Sea islands. But Abe has a warm personal relationship with Putin and is seeking to improve ties over territory disputed with Russia.
Trump broke with political orthodoxy during his campaign in his praise of Vladimir Putin as “very smart.” As president he faces a swirling scandal back in Washington about whether his campaign colluded with Russia during the election. Trump may also need to put allies at ease after news reports that he shared highly sensitive classified information gleaned from a U.S. ally with the Russian foreign minister during a meeting in the Oval Office.
Macron blasted his main rivals during the 2017 election campaign for ”Putin-o-philia“ and repeatedly said the Russian government doesn’t share values with France or its main allies. Still, Macron said he would keep talking to Putin and is hosting him on a visit to Paris next week. Russia’s return to the G-8 is absolutely not on the table for the French.
Trudeau: Canada Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, who is of Ukrainian heritage, is an avowed Putin critic and is currently banned by Russia from entering the country. Canada recently announced support for a so-called Magnitsky law—named for the Russian lawyer who died in prison—to expand powers to impose sanctions for human rights abuses.
Merkel’s principled stance on Ukraine has helped turn her into Putin’s main European adversary. She has invested political capital in keeping EU economic sanctions on Russia, bucking calls by business groups and her Social Democratic coalition partner to ease the penalties. After her first meeting with Trump in Washington, Merkel said he had backed the European-led process for a permanent cease-fire and political settlement in eastern Ukraine.
May: The U.K.’s relations with Putin remain frosty. In April, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson called off a trip to Moscow—the first planned since 2012—after the use of chemical weapons by the Russian-backed Syrian government, saying Britain “deplores Russia’s continued defense of the Assad regime.” The U.K. has been steadfast in its support for sanctions over Ukraine. Nonetheless, London is a magnet for wealthy Russians to invest in and make their homes.