Nigeria Has Succession Jitters, Again

Nigeria is awash in nervous speculation over the health of President Muhammadu Buhari, who hasn’t appeared in public since he returned to the U.K. for medical treatment for an undisclosed ailment on May 7. Buhari, 74 and a Muslim, has formally designated his deputy, Yemi Osinbajo, acting president as he did when he was away on medical leave for 49 days from Jan. 20. The prospect of Osinbajo, a 60-year-old Christian, serving out the remaining two years of Buhari’s term raises the specter of sectarian tension in a country that has seen plenty of it in the past. Succession jitters also heighten concern about government paralysis at a time when the economy is in recession.

Because Nigeria is divided between a mostly Muslim north and a predominantly Christian south, there’s been an unwritten agreement among the political elite since the end of military rule in 1999 that the presidency is rotated every two elections. So if Buhari dies or steps down and is succeeded by Osinbajo -- as the constitution dictates -- many in the north would probably feel shortchanged. They might insist that Osinbajo promise to step aside at the next elections in 2019 and allow his deputy -- who would probably be a Muslim from the north -- to run instead.