The Flashpoints for World Leaders at the Hamburg G-20

The Group of 20 summit that starts in Hamburg on Thursday is the most anticipated—and potentially turbulent—meeting of global leaders in years. An unpredictable U.S. president with a protectionist bent, a Russian leader subject to international sanctions and a Chinese president looking to assert a greater global role are just a few of the factors that might stoke tensions.

Sparks could really fly over the policy agenda of free trade, climate change and migration put forward by the German host. Angela Merkel is determined to avoid a repeat of May’s G-7 meeting in Italy, where it was six against one: Donald Trump. Yet she acknowledges that “the discord is obvious” and “it would be dishonest to paper over the conflict.”

Following are what look to be the main flashpoints at the summit and the relative positions of G-20 members with most at stake:

United States: Donald Trump has shown his disdain for the status quo on world trade. He often describes trade as a zero-sum proposition in which the U.S. has been losing ground for decades and lambasts nations such as Germany that export more to the U.S. than they import as “very bad.” He seeks an overhaul of the global trading order that would elevate the U.S. at the expense of other countries.

Germany: As head of Europe’s top exporting nation, Angela Merkel is under pressure to defend open markets and push back against criticism of Germany’s trade surplus. In the G-20 runup, the chancellor has tried to enlist countries from China and India to Mexico as free-trade allies and continues to push for completion of the TTIP trade deal between the EU and the U.S.

United Kingdom: Aside from holding on to Downing Street, Theresa May has one thing in her inbox: Brexit. Once the U.K. leaves the EU—its biggest market—in 2019, it will live or die by signing free-trade deals, so May is desperate to make the case that Brexit Britain is “open for business.”

Brazil: Says it is the best example of how protectionism has failed and that it now seeks open borders. President Michel Temer wants the final G-20 document to emphasize the importance of multilateral trade rules and contain a specific mention of the WTO (which a Brazilian heads).

Argentina: Only just reentered capital markets after 15 years of isolation, and President Mauricio Macri wants to strengthen trade ties with anyone willing to listen. He’s visited China, Japan, Germany and Davos, all in the name of business, and has expressed a desire to do more bilateral deals with or without the regional trade bloc Mercosur.

United States: The Trump administration has introduced measures to boost coal production and chipped away at environmental regulations while announcing the U.S. will withdraw from the Paris climate accords. At the G-7 last month, the U.S. declined to support a joint statement supporting global action against climate change.

China: The world’s biggest polluter aims to occupy the ground the U.S. is vacating, and President Xi intends to put climate at the core of his G-20 agenda.

France: Emmanuel Macron is a major defender of the Paris accord, frequently linking problems such as terrorism and migration to climate change and suggesting France may go further in its carbon targets as a result of the U.S. withdrawal.

Germany: Angela Merkel, a former environment minister who helped forge the precursor to the Kyoto accord, is pushing for G-20 members to hold to the Paris agreement. While keen not to isolate Trump, she will ultimately have to decide if she takes him on over climate change.

India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has committed to the global agreement on curbing emissions and pledged to “go beyond the Paris accord,” saying “we have a common responsibility to protect our mother planet.”

United States: Trump, who proposed building a U.S. border wall and signed a ban on travel for refugees and nationals from six Muslim-majority countries, has called for nations to have the authority to control migration. He has criticized Europeans for taking in so many migrants.

Turkey: Hosts more refugees—almost 3 million—than any other country, mostly from war-torn neighboring Syria. That shared interest in migration means for all his public jibes at Merkel and threats to tear up a refugee deal with the EU, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may have more in common with the German chancellor than with the U.S. president on this issue.

Mexico: Immigrant rights have moved to the top of Mexico’s agenda after the U.S. threatened mass deportations of its citizens. Mexico participates in global refugee programs and has worked to limit the illegal crossing of Central Americans at its southern frontier.

Italy: Migration is a priority for Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, whose Mediterranean country is struggling to cope with arrivals of refugees from North Africa and the Middle East. Italy has long felt abandoned by its European Union and other partners, and Gentiloni will be seeking more support for Merkel’s summit attempts to boost growth in Africa through foreign investment to help stem the outward flows of people.

South Africa: For President Jacob Zuma, the issue of migration is about people from mostly sub-Saharan countries such as Nigeria, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia who are fleeing war or grinding poverty. Recent years have seen outbreaks of deadly violence against foreigners by South Africans who say the migrants are taking their jobs and opportunities.

Russia: Vladimir Putin has repeatedly praised Trump, who campaigned on a pledge to build better relations with Russia. But Putin has watched with growing concern as investigations into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. vote have further poisoned relations and Moscow’s opponents in the U.S. have pushed for new sanctions on Russia.

Japan: Abe was the first to visit Trump after Trump won the White House, even golfing with the president. But Abe has also taken care to stress Japan’s investments in the U.S. economy and defended the status of trade ties, including Japanese auto exports.

Saudi Arabia: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was one of the first foreign officials to visit Trump as president, allowing Saudi Arabia to claim “a historic turning point” in relations. Trump chose Saudi Arabia as the first destination on his first foreign trip as president, saying that his meetings there with regional leaders were “beyond anything anyone has seen.”

France: Emmanuel Macron crushed Trump’s hand the first time they met and hasn’t hesitated to take him on since, almost trolling the U.S. leader when he announced his withdrawal from the Paris accords. But he’s invited the president to attend the July 14 Bastille Day celebrations—and Trump accepted.

Canada: Justin Trudeau may find himself a hot commodity at the G-20 with other leaders looking to pick the Canadian premier’s brain for how to deal with his neighbor. With Nafta talks due to begin in August, Trudeau’s cabinet has fanned out to lobby the White House, Congress and key U.S. governors to ward off proposals for a border tax or new trade tariffs.