Why Japan’s Abe Is Gambling on an Early Election

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved parliament to set the stage for an Oct. 22 election, testing his iron grip over the powerful lower house in the world’s third-largest economy. The 63-year-old Abe plans to stay in office if his coalition retains a simple majority -- putting him on course to keep his job through 2020 and become the longest-serving leader in the country’s history. He’s facing a surprise test: A new party headed by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike sprang up to offer a last-ditch challenge.

Abe is taking advantage of a recent recovery in public support and an opposition in disarray -- he need not have called the poll until December next year. Renewing his coalition’s two-thirds’ majority would allow him a shot at achieving his ambition of changing Japan’s pacifist constitution. Standing in his way is Koike, a 65-year-old former newscaster whom Abe has called “a formidable opponent.” She has already triggered the virtual collapse of the main opposition Democratic Party, with many members expected to run for her Party of Hope. Smaller opposition parties are also considering whether to cooperate with Koike.