Will Relaxing Christmas Covid Rules Cause a Third Pandemic Wave?

One of the first rules of sound parenting is “be consistent.” If you mix your messages, you lose credibility and compliance goes out the window. Something similar applies to governments, which is one reason why Boris Johnson’s five-day Christmas reprieve for England is worrying. The other reason is even more straightforward: If you want to avoid a third wave of infections before a vaccine arrives, then telling people it’s okay to have a party isn’t such a great idea.

England’s second national lockdown is over on Dec. 2. But some 55 million people in England (everyone except the lucky inhabitants of Cornwall, the Isle of Wight and the Isles of Scilly) will still be banned from mixing with other households indoors. That’s painful, but practical. Britain’s initial tiering system — assigning more severe restrictions to local areas with bad outbreaks — was introduced too late and rules were too lenient; infection rates rose rapidly, straining hospital capacity, and that landed the country in the grind of another countrywide lockdown.