India Has a People Problem
Even now the country isn’t producing enough workers. With its population set to peak sooner than expected, it could soon face an unfolding demographic disaster.
The current generation of Indian youth has been badly fed and educated.
Photographer: Prakash Singh/AFP/Getty Images
By the middle of this century, India will have 1.6 billion people. That’s when the country’s population will finally start to decline, ending up at perhaps a billion by 2100. While that is still around 250 million more people than China will have then, every time India’s population is projected, its peak seems to come earlier and crest lower. While India will be a young country for decades yet, it is aging faster than expected.
The latest round of India’s massive National Family Health Survey underscores the point. The average Indian woman is now likely to have only two children. That’s below the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which the population would exactly replace itself over generations.