Jonathan Bernstein, Columnist

All That’s Known About the 2024 Elections Are the Unknowns

In most years, the contours of the next presidential race would already be taking shape by now. Not this time.

March 18, 2021 at 7:30 AM EDT

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics. A former professor of political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio, he wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.

Just one possibility.
Photographer: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg

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The folks over at FiveThirtyEight ran their first 2024 Republican presidential nomination mock draft last week. They were careful to label it “way too early.” In a normal presidential-election cycle, I would have been quick to run an item about how that wasn’t really true. Indeed, in a normal presidential-election cycle, I would have already written four months ago that the 2024 contest was already underway.

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