Remarks
Presidents Lose When There’s an Election-Year Recession
But Trump could be poised to break the trend.
President Donald Trump after signing the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act in the White House, April 24, 2020.
Photographer: OLIVIER DOULIERY/Getty ImagesThis article is for subscribers only.
On Monday, the National Bureau of Economic Research—the official government arbiter of recessions—formalized what most people already assumed: The U.S. economy entered a recession in February. The timing could hardly be worse for President Trump, who’s up for reelection in less than five months.
Voters often oust presidents and their parties when the economy goes into recession in an election year. We know this because the NBER has data measuring business cycles and calling the beginning and end of recessions since the 1850s, when Franklin Pierce was president.